After the Iran Nuclear Deal is signed and the sanctions are lifted . . .

The article following seems about right to me.  

Hard to know how Ms. Clinton fits in, if she is elected President.  

By then the nuclear deal will have been signed, and Iranian oil will begin to flow.  

China, India,and Pakistan will be eager for the natural gas from the Pars Field,  though China will try for a pipeline route that bypassed India.  

World oil prices will be affected, and I don’t know how.  I haven’t sen much speculation on oil prices.  My guess is that US oil companies will profit from  the deal.  I assume oil companies concur with the deal because they aren’t making much noise in opposition.

Iran’s economy will be booming; French automobiles will sell like hotcakes.

The Gulf Dictators will gnash their teeth.   They will be affected by a drop in oil prices, but only poor Yemen will suffer from the effect. 

Israel will continue to be safe.  I don’t see how it will be much affected, except in its internal politics.

No one will start a War. 

Fill me in with your guesses or knowledge.

al-Monitor

ISRAEL PULSE

בעברית

ישראל פולס

US President Barack Obama hugs Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv, March 20, 2013. (photo by REUTERS/Jason Reed)

US willing to 'compensate' Israel on Iran deal

At the conclusion of a long, exhausting and beleaguered campaign, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will present his fourth government to the Knesset early next week. He will hope and pray that the Knesset will give him a vote of confidence. If, indeed, his fragile, narrow majority (61 Knesset members out of 120) passes the confidence vote, the government could hit the road. Numerous tasks wait for this government, and a considerable number of urgent problems need immediate treatment. Since October 2014, Israel has been running on autopilot without proper management: without a budget, without fully active ministers and without a steady, focused hand on the governmental rudder. On his way to victory in the polls, Netanyahu endangered many Israeli national interests. These include relations with the United States, domestic relations with Israeli Arabs and the state’s international image. Now the time has come to mend the fences.

Summary

⎙ Print

 The United States doesn’t understand why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to focus on battling the Iranian deal and rejects two large and strategic “special interest deals” with the US administration.

Author Ben Caspit

Posted May 12, 2015

TranslatorDanny Wool

The most urgent issue of all is that of relations with the United States. Since the elections on March 17, quite a number of US officials have visited Israel, including active members of Congress and former high-level officers of the administration. A summary of the conversations by these visitors with their Israeli hosts brings to light painful observations on the future of bilateral relations between Israel and the country that is perceived as Israel’s greatest ally, the United States.

“The personal relations between Netanyahu and [US President Barack] Obama have soured beyond repair,” a US source who is an expert on the topic said this week, in regard to the talks he held here with Israeli colleagues. “There is no chance to patch things up or turn the clock back. President Obama knows that Netanyahu has long since wiped him off the map. Netanyahu knows that President Obama knows, and both of them yearn for the day that one of them finishes his term of office. Most probably, it will happen first to Obama,” the US visitor said. This diagnosis was shared by almost everyone who was asked questions on the subject in recent weeks. “It is a poisonous relationship,” another US source said. “The two don’t believe each other, don’t care about each other and express no interest at all in changing the situation or believing that it can be changed.”

Note of caution: In politics in general, and in Middle East politics in specific, the rule is, “never say never.” Former Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, who only yesterday sat with Netanyahu and was viewed as Netanyahu’s ally, stormed Netanyahu May 11 with a pitchfork and called him a liar and a cheater in full view of the Knesset cameras. However, that will not prevent Liberman from returning to cooperate with Netanyahu in his fifth government (in another six months or two years), if he decides that such a move suits his political interests.

That’s the way it is in Israel, and it could be that that’s the way it is regarding the stable and magnificent relationship that used to exist between Jerusalem and Washington. For instance, Alon Ben-David, Israeli TV Channel 10's much-esteemed defense correspondent, reported May 8 that Obama told several of his interlocutors that he had decided, despite it all, to cast a veto on the French proposal regarding the Middle East conflict (for a UN resolution on Palestinian statehood), if and when it comes to a discussion and vote in the UN Security Council. This is despite recent assessments that the Americans had decided not to cast such a veto.

This leak is viewed as a US attempt to sweeten the pot and show goodwill vis-a-vis the tough Israeli antagonist from Jerusalem. A sort of carrot-and-stick game in which the Americans try to entice the recalcitrant, weaseling Netanyahu by extending a hand, or half a hand, in peace. But there’s something else that’s been going on. High-echelon sources in the US administration have recently been expressing great amazement about Netanyahu’s pattern of behavior: The Israeli prime minister could now opt for pushing forward two large “special interest deals” with the administration. The first is called the “small deal,” and the second we will refer to as the “big deal.”

The “small deal” involves putting a stop to frenetic Israeli activity in Congress to torpedo, postpone, delay or change the emerging arrangement between Iran and the superpowers. According to the Americans, Israeli logic should dictate the following: Most likely, an arrangement will be reached; its outlines are already clear. And most likely, Obama will get Congress to approve the settlement. Therefore, the wise thing for Israel to do at this point in time is to ''cash in'' on halting the heavy pressure exerted by Jerusalem on US legislators (mainly Republicans) in exchange for military, diplomatic and general support, assistance, weapons, ammunition and the like from the United States. The Americans are ripe for this deal, but the hints they send to Jerusalem hit a brick wall. Netanyahu won’t budge; he continues to fight with all his might, backed by Sheldon Adelson’s money and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee lobby (the two don’t work together) in Washington.

The “big deal” involves the same upgrading of strategic relations and alliance that is supposed to be signed between Israel and the United States, should an agreement be signed with Iran. Clearly, an agreement with Iran worsens Israel’s strategic position in the region (an Israeli defense source said behind closed doors), and, clearly, the United States will be willing to try to provide Israel with strategic compensation to offset this deterioration. For that to happen, discussions should be taking place right now. But there are no discussions, no talks, no connections and no overtures. Jerusalem doesn’t answer. Netanyahu won’t move an inch.

“We have an irrevocable strategic opportunity to receive things from Washington that we have never before received,” an Israeli source, who until recently served in a senior position in the defense apparatus, said at the beginning of the week in a closed meeting. “Israel could upgrade itself regarding the quality of US assistance in the future; it could update and consolidate agreements and arrangements that were closed in the past, but without clear expiration dates. Every time that something happened in the international arena that harmed Israel’s defense position, and every time that Israel took chances regarding security, America knew how to compensate it. Only this time, despite US willingness, it’s not happening,” he said.

Not everyone in Israel’s diplomatic and security systems agrees with Netanyahu’s policy, which is deeply influenced by Adelson. This approach advocates gambling on one toss of the dice, and not conducting negotiations. Meanwhile, scathing words of criticism are being voiced in Israel’s diplomatic and defense systems regarding the current disruption of relations between the United States and Jerusalem. The critics, who measure their words and are careful to retain their anonymity, say that Netanyahu is mortgaging many of Israel’s weighty strategic interests in the throes of the war of destruction he has declared against Obama.

“That is not wise and not correct,” the critics say, “You have to think about the day after.” In contrast, Netanyahu’s people say, “There will be time on the day after for these kinds of things too. Meanwhile, now we have to focus on the goal and not loosen our grip.” In their view, the goal is that the United States should internalize the fact that the agreement about to be signed with Iran is a bad agreement.

Jerusalem received a large boost this week when Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud refused an invitation to attend a landmark summit hosted by Obama at Camp David, in an effort to appease his Arab allies in the Middle East. “See, the Saudis also think like us and are giving Washington the cold shoulder,” a source close to Netanyahu said, with great satisfaction.

Only time will tell who was right in this debate. Meanwhile, Obama’s administration is adjusting itself to Netanyahu’s fourth government as someone would resign himself to a serious chronic disease. There is still no invitation for Netanyahu to come to Washington, and it will not be extended until after June 30. Meanwhile, in the mistrustful overtures between the two capitals, another option was raised: that the focus of the Israel-US relationship should switch from the broken Netanyahu-Obama alignment to the efficient, friendly and better functioning axis of Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and his US counterpart, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter. At least this channel has continued to operate effectively in recent months.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/05/israel-netanyahu-iranian-nuke-deal-us-rapprochement-efforts.html#ixzz3a3MbfWaR

d

A chance for leverage by Balochi and Uighurs, those willing to die for freedom as they define freedom

The Iran-Pakistan Pipeline, as planned,had begun in Pakistan at the Balochi front end of the Pipeline and ended in India.  

A new plan seems to have omitted india, and ends at the Uighur territory at the Chinese end.  

 Both the Balochi and the Uighurs  are Muslims, are both treated badly by their respective governments, and are both objecting to changes in the IP Pipeline.  And now the residents of Khyber Pass are complaining.

There are no details on the web of a new route for the pipeline; and both the Balochi and he Uighurs claim that there are changes that reduce benefits to their people.

The Pakistani government in Punjab, which is the primary beneficiary of the Pipeline, deny that there has been any change in the route.  

And Punjab is responding to complaints by “setting up a special division for the corridor, including nine army battalions and paramilitary forces”, expensive and unnecessary if there has been no change in the route.

Punjabi speak with forked toguens tongues, we we say in Hawaii.

[xImages added]

Reuters

Industries | Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:53am EDTRelated: ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS, UTILITIES

UPDATE 1-Pakistani politicians decry "unfair" China corridor route

(Adds comment from minister)

By Gul Yousafzai

(Reuters) - Politicians in Pakistan complained on Wednesday that a plan for projects worth $46 billion to be built with Chinese funding has been unfairly changed to the disadvantage of two provinces.

Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the plan in Pakistan on Monday. It involves energy and infrastructure projects linking the neighbours' economies and creating an "economic corridor" between Pakistan's Gwadar port and China's western Xinjiang region.

Gwadar is on the Arabian Sea in Baluchistan, Pakistan's poorest and least populous province, where rebels have waged a separatist insurgency for decades, complaining that richer provinces unfairly exploit their mineral and gas resources.

The deep water Port of Gwadar in Pakistan, on the Iranian border,  wholly owned by China

The insurgency has raised doubts about the corridor, a network of roads, railways and pipelines. To minimise the risk, government planners have shifted its route east, to bypass as much of Baluchistan as possible, Baluchistan politicians said.

Balochi freedom fighters

"We will not accept this decision and will resist this move very strongly," provincial Minister for Planning and Development Hamid Khan Achakzai told Reuters. "It will be a big injustice."

Jaffar Khan Mandokhel, a former provincial minister, said there would be a "strong reaction" to the change which would only benefit Pakistan's richest province.

"The change is meant to give maximum benefit to Punjab, which is already considered the privileged province," he said.

Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan

The route change would also mean the proposed corridor would largely bypass the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said opposition politician Imran Khan, whose party rules the province. He condemned any route change as an injustice.

Khyber Pass and its defenders

But federal Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal denied that there had been any change and said the project should not fall victim to provincial rivalry.

"This impression that the route has been changed is wrong," Iqbal told a news conference. "Turning this into an issue of conflict between provinces is tantamount to sabotaging billions of dollars of investment."

The complaints highlight the political risks for a plan China sees as a key part of its aim to forge "Silk Road" land and sea ties to markets in the Middle East and Europe.

The Pakistani army said it was tackling the security risks by setting up a special division for the corridor, including nine army battalions and paramilitary forces.

On Tuesday, six separatist militants and two soldiers were killed in clashes in Baluchistan, officials said.

Islamist militants have also attacked Chinese workers in Pakistan. And China worries about Muslim separatists from Xinjiang, whom it blames for a series of attacks across China over the past year, getting training from Pakistani militants.

Lotta freedom fighters, unless you call them terrorists.

(Additional reporting byMehreen Zahra-Malik; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Alex Richardson)

Iran-Pakistan-Saudi complexities explore brilliantly

An Argument in Foreign Policy, The Dangerous, Delicate Saudi-Pakistan Alliance | Foreign Policy states Iran's strengths and the dangers Iran poses to Pakistan, adding to the complexity of the West's dealings with Iran.  It is worth a read.

Some Middle East Conundrums

If you want to know why secretaries of state go mad, consider:

—  The US has been droning Qaeda men in South Yemen and giving billions to Yemen’s dictators to fight them, and Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is now one of the strongest brands of radicals there is; 

— The Southern Separatists, inclined to favor British governance, originally opposed Qaeda but began to support it when drones killed many of their relatives, without cause or explanation; 

— The quasi-Shia Houthi are fighting the radical Sunni Qaeda in Aden - the principal city in South Yemen, aiding the US objective there; 

— The Saudis are bombing the Houthi, falsely claiming that the Houthi are a tool of Iran whom we hate and love, because they fear that Houthi power will spread to the Shia who make up a majority of the residents of of the Saudi Eastern Province, their main oil producing province;

— The US is providing the Saudi with logistical support, while continuing to fight Qaeda;

— Thee Saudi have asked Pakistan for boots on the ground to help it in it’s defense and offense, since its military is ineffective, and Pakistan is wavering on joining the Saudi bombing of Yemen, fearing that doing so will make their own Shia-Sunni divisions  worse;

— The Coalition of Five which is negotiating with Iran over the Bomb has differing positions, making it hard for Iran to agree to anything;

— Israel, should be worried more about the Egyptian-Ssaudi-Pakisani military cabal now taking shape more than about Iran;;

— That cabal consists of  our “friends" in the Middle East,  nations to whom we give billions a year.

—  Kerry does not sleep well.  Neither would you, if you had to hold all this together.

— Obama sleeps well, content to do the best he can in the circumstances.  I think.

The New York Times

MIDDLE EAST

Qaeda Militants Attack Port City in Yemen, Freeing Prisoners

By SAEED AL-BATATI and KAREEM FAHIMAPRIL 2, 2015

 AL MUKALLA, Yemen — Militants from Al Qaeda’s Yemeni affiliate stormed this southern port city early on Thursday, attacking several government buildings including the central prison, where they freed hundreds of inmates, according to residents.

It appeared to be the first large-scale operation by the affiliate, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, since the beginning of a military offensive led by Saudi Arabia onYemen more than a week ago, and a further expansion of the violence rapidly spreading across the country.

In an apparently coordinated offensive that began after midnight, the militants attacked security headquarters, the presidential palace and other official installations. That appeared to be intended as a diversion before the militants attacked the central security prison, their primary target.

Witnesses near the prison said they saw hundreds of inmates file out. Afterward, looters descended on the prison, they said.

• Al Mukalla, the capital of the oil-rich Hadhramaut Province, had been spared much of the recent unrest in Yemen’s accelerating war. The fighting began in earnest weeks ago in the southern port city of Aden, where forces loyal to the president of Yemen, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who is now exiled, clashed with allies of the Houthis, a northern militia that controls the capital and forced Mr. Hadi from power.

Last week, Saudi Arabia and a coalition of countries, with support from the United States, began a broad military offensive against the Houthis, ostensibly aimed at restoring Mr. Hadi to power. Many have begun to question the aims of the military campaign, as the Houthis have continued to advance, including deeper into Aden, and the toll of the fighting on Yemeni civilians has become increasingly severe.

The attack on Thursday was the first indication of how Al Qaeda was capitalizing on the growing anarchy, at a time when Yemen’s American-trained counterterrorism troops have come under attack by the Saudi-led military coalition.

A similar attack by Al Qaeda in late March on a town in Lahj Province forced the Obama administration to withdraw its last military advisers to Yemen, who were stationed at a base near the town. The administration has said it is providing intelligence, logistical support and targeting guidance to the Saudi-led campaign.

Explosions and gunfire could be heard throughout Al Mukalla overnight. Clashes continued in the city later on Thursday morning, as local military units backed by helicopters fought gun battles with militants in Al Mukalla’s old city, according to witnesses.

————  ———————————

Syria in Crisis: Is Turkey Going to War?

A start, at least.  

Russia and Turkey have the largest standing armies in Central Asia, and a clear interest in defeating Muslim jihadists.  

There is no reason why Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt cannot contribute troops, too.  Their interest is even clearer, and we give Egypt and Pakistan lots of money for troops.  American Hawks should focus their ire there, rather than lobbying for American canon fodder on the ground. 

Stupid hawks.

 Thee Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Syria in Crisis Is Turkey Going to War?

Posted by: ARON LUND

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2014 

On October 2, the Turkish parliament voted to authorize Turkey’s government to order a military intervention in Syria and Iraq, if and when that becomes necessary to protect the nation.

Until now, Turkey has stayed out of the U.S.-led international coalition bombing extremists from the so-called Islamic State, an al-Qaeda splinter group also known as ISIS or ISIL, in neighboring Iraq and Syria. Furthermore, it refuses to intervene in support of Kurdish militants in the Kobane enclave in northern Syria, even as their defenses are overrun by Islamic State forces and refugees pour across the Turkish border. This has to do with the fact that the Kurdish fighters in Kobane are linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, Turkey’s primary adversary, which is even now involved in violence against the army. But Turkey has deployed tanks to the border area and could, if it decided to, tip the balance in the battle. In addition, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arinc recently warned that the Islamic State is advancing toward the tomb of Suleyman Shah—a small Turkish-controlled exclave in northern Syria.

The parliamentary vote and the emergence of new crises on the border have raised expectations that Turkey will now join in the attacks on the Islamic State, whether in Kobane or elsewhere, ruffling the feathers of some regional states. “In the current situation, the countries of the region must act with responsibility,” warned Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif.

But the Turkish decision is far less dramatic than it seems. While Turkey is likely to lend assistance to the U.S.-led campaign, the parliamentary vote won’t trigger any military action by itself. Much of the reporting and commentary on the vote has overlooked that this is in fact the third year in a row that Turkey’s parliament has issued an authorization for military force.

Iraq Since 2007, Syria Since 2012

The first of such resolutions was passed in October 2012, after several exchanges of fire across the

Turkish border. The one-year authorization took aim at the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, serving as a shot across the bow by lowering Turkey’s threshold for intervention.

However, no intervention ever came. The parliament therefore extended its one-year deadline in October 2013. Again, no intervention took place during the year, and the resolution is set to expire today. That’s why the Turkish parliament has issued a resolution now—not because of the fighting in Kobane or the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State, although it may of course be used to join these battles.

As for Iraq, a similar Turkish policy has existed since October 2007, when the parliament voted to give a one-year authorization to intervene against PKK militants hiding in northern Iraq. In spring 2008, the Turkish army conducted a major cross-border campaign and it struck the PKK camps again in late 2011. But most years, the resolution has simply been renewed as a routine matter with no expectation of imminent military action.

New Resolution, New Targets

Two things are different this time around. Instead of simply presenting the Iraq and Syria resolutions for renewal, as per the usual routine, the Turkish government merged them into one single resolution authorizing the government to “defeat attacks directed at our country from all terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria.” It also added a new element by granting the government a one-year mandate “to allow foreign troops in Turkey for the same purposes.”

That’s a broader scope than previous resolutions had, and it seems designed to grant the government a free hand in striking the Islamic State. But the vote itself doesn’t signal that an intervention is in the works. “Don't expect any immediate steps,” said Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz. Because for Turkey, the top priority is not to join the campaign against the Islamic State but to leverage it for other purposes.

Turkey’s Priority is a No-Fly Zone

“Three things are of the utmost importance,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in late September. “Firstly, the formation of a no-fly zone; secondly, the formation of a safe haven on the Syrian side and preparation for its organization and administration; and thirdly we will discuss which actors will manage this process.”

Next week, the top two officials running the U.S. campaign against the Islamic State, John Allen and Brett McGurk, will be visiting Turkey. The Ankara government is then expected to try to negotiate accession to the anti-jihadi coalition in return for U.S. participation in a no-fly zone over northern Syria.

Such direct military intervention against Assad's government is something the United States has long sought to avoid, but it is a core goal of Turkish policy and a long-standing demand of much of Syria’s opposition. With the U.S. Air Force now operating inside Syrian airspace and the Turkish parliament having cleared the way for foreign forces on its soil, a no-fly zone is no longer the distant possibility it used to be. But U.S. and Turkish views on the issue remain far apart, and overcoming U.S. objections will prove much harder for Erdoğan than securing the support of his own parliament.

∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼

YPG Calls on all Kurdish Groups to Unite Against Jihadist Threats in Rojava  

YPG is the name of the Syrian Kurdish Militia. 

YPG Kurdish fighters 

Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK

PKK Fighters

We'll keep troops in Afghanistan; the 21st Century Great Game requires it

This lovely, provocative image accompanies today's New York Times story about President Obama's persistent efforts to keep troops in Afghanistan after 2014. 

A member of the Afghan National Security Forces kept watch as American soldiers met with Afghan officials near Kandahar. Credit Scott Olson/Getty Images

If this picture doesn't convince you that We and hey are different, you're hopeless.

Nevertheless, I'm convinced that the president want to keep troops in Afghanistan for more that just to train Afghan troops. 

To resist China's continuing efforts to expand its presence into Central Asia we need a continuing military presence in Afghanistan.  I'll bet he gets what he wants in the end.

The sanctions on Iran's oil needs to end quickly, and with a firm agreement that Iran not get an Atomic Bomb.  

Sanctions on Iran are hurting US relations with Pakistan and India because it is preventing those countries from getting needed natural gas from Iran through the IP Pipeline.  

China also wants Iran's natural gas through the pipeline. The diplomatic challenge should focus on how to keep the pipeline from going through India into China, and to keep a spur from going to China's deep water port in Gwadar in South Pakistan, now in effect Chinese territory, policed by Chinese army and cops . . .

. . . and not in keeping Iran from servicing friendly countries.

. . . And it is a pity 
that so many nations thrust for oil 
when burning fossil fuels is wrecking havoc 
on the only planet we have the use of, 
for now.  

We are too soon old 

and too late smart.

Oil out of Iran and the shameful but real thrust for it

A raft of news stories today suggest that the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline will be completed by December, 2014, despite strenuous objections from the United States.  See e.g., The Pakistan Daily Times,  The News International, boh of which also suggested that the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline may be in rouble along the Khyber Pass because of the War on Terror, The Express Tribune, The Business Recorder, and The International News Network Online which also noted that a Pakistan Senate committee recommended "to start construction of power generation units at Gwadar and other areas to produce electricity through the gas imported from Iran, state-run radio"  reported.

Photo International News Network

The Express Tribune also reported that Pakistan's "[n]ewly-elected Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, in his maiden speech, revealed that Islamabad and Beijing have expressed a keen desire to implement the Gwadar-Khunjerab-Kashgar rail network." 

Gwadar is a deep-water port in in Balochistan Province in Pakistan, near the Iranian border and the strategically-significant Strait of Hormuz.

Dispatch News Desk

The New York Times Smugglers plying their trade in

 the Strait of Hormuz between Irran and Oman.

In May of this year, China took over operational control of Gwadar port, to the dismay of many Balochi.

For more on China and the Gwadar port, see the International Policy Digest, "The Preeminence of Pakistan’s Gwadar Port."

The United States has, for decades, exerted pressure in many places to keep Iran from exporting oil.  Those efforts have been dramatically increased since Iran has obtained some possibility of building The BBomb.  The United States has threaten to cut of aid to Pakistan if it goes forward with the IP Pipeline.

It looks as if shipping a lot of oil and natural gas will finally be allowed out of Iran.

If everyone may export and import oil Iran should not be stigmatized.  It may wan The Bomb, though there is no proof of it; Israel is reported to have 250 Bombs.  Start there I say.

It is a pity that any country thirsts for oil, given the climate disaster than awaits us and our descendants, and the United States and many other countries continue to hurst after it.

 It would make little difference to the World if the US were to completely eliminate fossil fuels, because he World will use every last drop in the Earth.

Some will benefit from climate change; many will die of too much water or too little; too much cold or too little.

 

If I had billions it wouldn’t make much difference to my ease who lives and dies since I can live anywhere I chose to live.  

Not many have that choice.  I assume that it is the lack of real threat to those with much money that explains our World's continued drive to use every last drop of oil.

Democratic Underground.com

 Prove me wrong, you who disagree.

The Nation of Baluchistan blooms on the dessert air, perhaps

Some 1,500,000 Balochi live in Iran, as a result of an agreement between Britain and Iran in the mid-19th Century.  They live mostly in the Sistan and Baluchistan Province in Southern Iran, Iran's poorest and most neglected province. They are mostly Sunni in Shia Iran and are mistreated by Iranians.

Around 400,000 Balochi live in Afghanistan, a consequence of the insensitive Durand Line dividing he Pashtun people in 1893.  The Baloch people hav customs compatible with the Pashtun the live at peace with them.  The Afghan Baloch are are now at war with the United States.  The live mainly in the Afghanistan provinces of Nimroz, Helmand, Kandahar, and Farah, where the United States' "surge" took place and from whence the United States drones Balochi living in North Balochistan, who, in turn, are said to plot against the United States.

At least 13,000,000 Balochi live in the Baluchistan Province of Pakistan  They make up about 5 % of Pakistan's population.  They are mistreated by the Oxford-educated, English-speaking Rulers of Pakistan  who are predominately Punjabi.

The Pashtun and the Balochi have similar cultural traditions and

 live at peace with one another.

Many Balochi, but perhaps not a majority of them, agitate for the Nation of Baluchistan which would be made of Balochi living in Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. . .

. . . and being poor have had little leverage to secure either a Nation or a better life for themselves.

The Baloch now have some leverage.

Pakistan needs natural gas and needs it badly.

Iran, its neighbor to the East, has the World's largest natural gas field, , badly needs to export it, and Pakistan has signed agreements for the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline.  The IP Pipeline, if completed, would satisfy Pakistan's energy needs, and perhaps India's and China's.  It would run through Balochi territory.

To the North, above Afghanistan, Turkmenistan has the World's' second largest natural gas fields (third, if Russia's is counted). The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Pipeline, TAP or TAPI, if completed, would supply all of Pakistan's energy needs, and also reach India and China. It would run through Baluchi territory.

The IP Pipeline is supported by Iran and the previous Pakistan administration.  It is opposed by the United Staates with all the instruments of power at its disposal, save War; and by the Horrible Saudi.  The newly-elected president of Pakistan is close to the Saudi, and seems intent on renegotiating the US incursions on Pakistan territory.  The fate of the IP Pipeline is unknown yet.

The TAPI pipeline is supported by Pakistan, and the United States supports it as an alternative to the IP Pipeline, even though Turkmenistan is ruled by Saparmurat Atayevich Niyazov, President for Life, a holdover from the Soviet rea with a wretched human rights record..  The TAPI Pipeline must cross Persian-specking Tajiks in Hera;, Afghan  Pashtun and Balochi in Kandahar; and the Baluchi in Pakistan. It must cross the especially  active region of  Quetta. That presents negotiating challenges, milady stated.


An organized Balochi could block either pipeline, or at l sabotage either.  It is uncertain whether there is a group in Baluchistan sufficiently organized to force concessions from either Iran or Pakistan.

The prospect of organized opposition to Iranian or Pakistani despotism is slim, given Islamabad's and Tehran's inhumane repression (see The Baloch people have a right to self-determination), and there is some reason for optimism despite persecution.

For a thoughtful look at Baloch prospects, see Baloch Nationalism and the Geopolitics of Energy Resources: The Changing Context of Separatism in Pakistan,Strategic Studies Institutie, United States Army Waar College.


IMAGES OF BALOCHISTAN

Tourists don't go to Balochistan areas often, so most of the images posted on line are of violence, and that is not typical of the area.  The Baloch are a tribal people and I do not possess any characteristic that would fit tribal mores.  Within the communities of the Baloch, there is much to admire, including the ability to survive in a harsh land.  See, e.g., here.

Baloch in Pakistan:

Quetta in the North, the capital of the Pakistan provine of Balochistan:

Below, images of Asura, 2012,in Quitta, an annual religious rite
 of the large Shiite population of Quetta,
not bombed by Sunni in 2012,
mourning the masterdom of Hussein
on the plains of Karbala in what is now Iraq.  
Hussein was the grandson of  the Holy Prophet.

Gwadar, a port city on the Arabian Sea being developed by China, which will province China a trace route throughout central Asia.  Baloch nationalists see an effort to drown out their calls for independence.

Kauzdar, in the center, the capital of the Kauzdar District.  The district has a population of about 500,000 Balochi:

Balochi satire.  Pakistani saluting  the Pakistan flag.

The Baloch Dessert, which occupies most of Pakistan

My satire:

Texas, Our Texas! all hail the mighty State!
Texas, Our Texas! so wonderful so great!

Balochi in Iran

The Sistan and Baluchistan Province of Iran

  

Balochi in Afghanistan

Possibly cattle rustlers