Thursday, April 2, 2015

Some Middle East Conundrums

If you want to know why secretaries of state go mad, consider:

—  The US has been droning Qaeda men in South Yemen and giving billions to Yemen’s dictators to fight them, and Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is now one of the strongest brands of radicals there is; 

— The Southern Separatists, inclined to favor British governance, originally opposed Qaeda but began to support it when drones killed many of their relatives, without cause or explanation; 

— The quasi-Shia Houthi are fighting the radical Sunni Qaeda in Aden - the principal city in South Yemen, aiding the US objective there; 

— The Saudis are bombing the Houthi, falsely claiming that the Houthi are a tool of Iran whom we hate and love, because they fear that Houthi power will spread to the Shia who make up a majority of the residents of of the Saudi Eastern Province, their main oil producing province;

— The US is providing the Saudi with logistical support, while continuing to fight Qaeda;

— Thee Saudi have asked Pakistan for boots on the ground to help it in it’s defense and offense, since its military is ineffective, and Pakistan is wavering on joining the Saudi bombing of Yemen, fearing that doing so will make their own Shia-Sunni divisions  worse;

— The Coalition of Five which is negotiating with Iran over the Bomb has differing positions, making it hard for Iran to agree to anything;

Israel, should be worried more about the Egyptian-Ssaudi-Pakisani military cabal now taking shape more than about Iran;;

— That cabal consists of  our “friends" in the Middle East,  nations to whom we give billions a year.

—  Kerry does not sleep well.  Neither would you, if you had to hold all this together.

— Obama sleeps well, content to do the best he can in the circumstances.  I think.



The New York Times
Qaeda Militants Attack Port City in Yemen, Freeing Prisoners
By SAEED AL-BATATI and KAREEM FAHIMAPRIL 2, 2015

 AL MUKALLA, Yemen — Militants from Al Qaeda’s Yemeni affiliate stormed this southern port city early on Thursday, attacking several government buildings including the central prison, where they freed hundreds of inmates, according to residents.
It appeared to be the first large-scale operation by the affiliate, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, since the beginning of a military offensive led by Saudi Arabia onYemen more than a week ago, and a further expansion of the violence rapidly spreading across the country.
In an apparently coordinated offensive that began after midnight, the militants attacked security headquarters, the presidential palace and other official installations. That appeared to be intended as a diversion before the militants attacked the central security prison, their primary target.
Witnesses near the prison said they saw hundreds of inmates file out. Afterward, looters descended on the prison, they said.
  • Al Mukalla, the capital of the oil-rich Hadhramaut Province, had been spared much of the recent unrest in Yemen’s accelerating war. The fighting began in earnest weeks ago in the southern port city of Aden, where forces loyal to the president of Yemen, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who is now exiled, clashed with allies of the Houthis, a northern militia that controls the capital and forced Mr. Hadi from power.
Last week, Saudi Arabia and a coalition of countries, with support from the United States, began a broad military offensive against the Houthis, ostensibly aimed at restoring Mr. Hadi to power. Many have begun to question the aims of the military campaign, as the Houthis have continued to advance, including deeper into Aden, and the toll of the fighting on Yemeni civilians has become increasingly severe.
The attack on Thursday was the first indication of how Al Qaeda was capitalizing on the growing anarchy, at a time when Yemen’s American-trained counterterrorism troops have come under attack by the Saudi-led military coalition.
A similar attack by Al Qaeda in late March on a town in Lahj Province forced the Obama administration to withdraw its last military advisers to Yemen, who were stationed at a base near the town. The administration has said it is providing intelligence, logistical support and targeting guidance to the Saudi-led campaign.
Explosions and gunfire could be heard throughout Al Mukalla overnight. Clashes continued in the city later on Thursday morning, as local military units backed by helicopters fought gun battles with militants in Al Mukalla’s old city, according to witnesses.


————  ———————————




Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Race in the Modern World


An article from Foreign Affairs worth serious attention as we in the West consider developments in the Middle East  and in our own neighborhood.  These sentence, for example, may spark your interest:


Identities rooted in the reality or the fantasy of shared ancestry, in short, remain central in politics, both within and between nations. In this new century, as in the last, the color line and its cousins are still going strong. 
. . . 
But at this point, the price of trying to move beyond ethnoracial identities is worth paying, not only for moral reasons but also for the sake of intellectual hygiene. It would allow us to live and work together more harmoniously and productively, in offices, neighborhoods, towns, states, and nations. Why, after all, should we tie our fates to groups whose existence seems always to involve misunderstandings about the facts of human difference? Why rely on imaginary natural commonalities rather than build cohesion through intentional communities? Wouldn’t it be better to organize our solidarities around citizenship and the shared commitments that bind political society?

  
Durell outhit







Hindu devotees in Mumbai, August 10, 2012. (Danish Siddiqui / Courtesy Reuters)

Race in the Modern World
The Problem of the Color Line
Kwame Anthony Appiah

KWAME ANTHONY APPIAH is Professor of Philosophy and Law at New York University. His most recent book isLines of Descent: W. E. B. Du Bois and the Emergence of Identity [1].

In 1900, in his “Address to the Nations of the World” at the first Pan-African Conference, in London, W. E. B. Du Bois proclaimed that the “problem of the twentieth century” was “the problem of the color-line, the question as to how far differences of race—which show themselves chiefly in the color of the skin and the texture of the hair—will hereafter be made the basis of denying to over half the world the right of sharing to their utmost ability the opportunities and privileges of modern civilization.”

Du Bois had in mind not just race relations in the United States but also the role race played in the European colonial schemes that were then still reshaping Africa and Asia. The final British conquest of Kumasi, Ashanti’s capital (and the town in Ghana where I grew up), had occurred just a week before the London conference began. The British did not defeat the Sokoto caliphate in northern Nigeria until 1903. Morocco did not become a French protectorate until 1912, Egypt did not become a British one until 1914, and Ethiopia did not lose its independence until 1936. Notions of race played a crucial role in all these events, and following the Congress of Berlin in 1878, during which the great powers began to devise a world order for the modern era, the status of the subject peoples in the Belgian, British, French, German, Spanish, and Portuguese colonies of Africa—as well as in independent South Africa—was defined explicitly in racial terms.


Du Bois was the beneficiary of the best education that North Atlantic civilization had to offer: he had studied at Fisk, one of the United States’ finest black colleges; at Harvard; and at the University of Berlin. The year before his address, he had published The Philadelphia Negro, the first detailed sociological study of an American community. And like practically everybody else in his era, he had absorbed the notion, spread by a wide range of European and American intellectuals over the course of the nineteenth century, that race—the division of the world into distinct groups, identifiable by the new biological sciences—was central to social, cultural, and political life.



Group thinker: Du Bois in Washington, D.C., circa 1911. (Addison N. Scurlock / National Portrait Gallery, Smithsonian Institution)

Even though he accepted the concept of race, however, Du Bois was a passionate critic of racism. He included anti-Semitism under that rubric, and after a visit to Nazi Germany in 1936, he wrote frankly in The Pittsburgh Courier, a leading black newspaper, that the Nazis’ “campaign of race prejudice . . . surpasses in vindictive cruelty and public insult anything I have ever seen; and I have seen much.” The European homeland had not been in his mind when he gave his speech on the color line, but the Holocaust certainly fit his thesis—as would many of the centuries’ genocides, from the German campaign against the Hereros in Namibia in 1904 to the Hutu massacre of the Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994. Race might not necessarily have been the problem of the century—there were other contenders for the title—but its centrality would be hard to deny.


Violence and murder were not, of course, the only problems that Du Bois associated with the color line. Civic and economic inequality between races—whether produced by government policy, private discrimination, or complex inter­actions between the two—were pervasive when he spoke and remained so long after the conference was forgotten. 


All around the world, people know about the civil rights movement in the United States and the antiapartheid struggle in South Africa, but similar campaigns have been waged over the years in Australia, New Zealand, and most of the countries of the Americas, seeking justice for native peoples, or the descendants of African slaves, or East Asian or South Asian indentured laborers. As non-Europeans, including many former imperial citizens, have immigrated to Europe in increasing numbers in recent decades, questions of racial inequality there have come to the fore, too—in civic rights, education, employment, housing, and income. For Du Bois, Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans were on the same side of the color line as he was. But Japanese brutality toward Chinese and Koreans up through World War II was often racially motivated, as are the attitudes of many Chinese toward Africans and African Americans today. Racial discrimination and insult are a global phenomenon.


Of course, ethnoracial inequality is not the only social inequality that matters. In 2013, the nearly 20 million white people below the poverty line in the United States made up slightly more than 40 percent of the country’s poor. Nor is racial prejudice the only significant motive for discrimination: ask Christians in Indonesia or Pakistan, Muslims in Europe, or LGBT people in Uganda. Ask women everywhere. But more than a century after his London address, Du Bois would find that when it comes to racial inequality, even as much has changed, much remains 
the same.


US AND THEM

Du Bois’ speech was an invitation to a global politics of race, one in which people of African descent could join with other people of color to end white supremacy, both in their various homelands and in the global system at large. That politics would ultimately shape the process of decolonization in Africa and the Caribbean and inform the creation of what became the African Union. It was a politics that led Du Bois himself to become, by the end of his life, a citizen of a newly independent Ghana, led by Kwame Nkrumah. 


But Du Bois was not simply an activist; he was even more a scholar and an intellectual, and his thinking reflected much of his age’s obsession with race as a concept. In the decades preceding Du Bois’ speech, thinkers throughout the academy—in classics, history, artistic and literary criticism, philology, and philosophy, as well as all the new life sciences and social sciences—had become convinced that biologists could identify, using scientific criteria, a small number of primary human races. Most would have begun the list with the black, white, and yellow races, and many would have included a Semitic race (including Jews and Arabs), an American Indian race, and more. People would have often spoken of various subgroups within these categories as races, too. Thus, the English poet Matthew Arnold considered the Anglo-Saxon and Celtic races to be the main components of the population of the United Kingdom; the French historian Hippolyte Taine thought the Gauls were the race at the core of French history and identity; and the U.S. politician John C. Calhoun discussed conflicts not only between whites and blacks but also between Anglo-Canadians and “the French race of Lower Canada.”


People thought race was important not just because it allowed one to define human groups scientifically but also because they believed that racial groups shared inherited moral and psychological tendencies that helped explain their different histories and cultures. Of course, there were always skeptics. Charles Darwin, for example, believed that his evolutionary theory demonstrated that human beings were a single stock, with local varieties produced by differences in environment, through a process that was bound to result in groups with blurred edges. But many late-nineteenth-century European and American thinkers believed deeply in the biological reality of race and thought that the natural affinity among the members of each group made races the appropriate units for social and political organization. 


Essentialism—the idea that human groups have core properties in common that explain not just their shared superficial appearances but also the deep tendencies of their moral and cultural lives—was not new. In fact, it is nearly universal, because the inclination to suppose that people who look alike have deep properties in common is built into human cognition, appearing early in life without much prompting. The psychologist Susan Gelman, for example, argues that “our essentializing bias is not directly taught,” although it is shaped by language and cultural cues. It can be found as far back as Herodotus’ Histories or the Hebrew Bible, which portrayed Ethiopians, Persians, and scores of other peoples as fundamentally other. “We” have always seen “our own” as more than superficially different from “them.”


What was new in the nineteenth century was the combination of two logically unrelated propositions: that races were biological and so could be identified through the scientific study of the shared properties of the bodies of their members and that they were also political, having a central place in the lives of states. In the eighteenth century, the historian David Hume had written of “national character”; by the nineteenth century, using the new scientific language, Arnold was arguing that the “Germanic genius” of his own “Saxon” race had “steadiness as its main basis, with commonness and humdrum for its defect, fidelity to nature for its excellence.”


If nationalism was the view that natural social groups should come together to form states, then the ideal form of nationalism would bring together people of a single race. The eighteenth-century French American writer J. Hector St. John de Crèvecoeur’s notion that in the New World, all races could be “melted into a new race of man”—so that it was the nation that made the race, not the race the nation—belonged to an older way of thinking, which racial science eclipsed.


THE OTHER DISMAL SCIENCE


In the decade after Du Bois’ address, however, a second stage of modern argumentation about human groups emerged, one that placed a much greater emphasis on culture. Many things contributed to this change, but a driving force was the development of the new social science of anthropology, whose German-born leader in the United States, Franz Boas, argued vigorously (and with copious evidence from studies in the field) that the key to understanding the significant differences between peoples lay not in biology—or, at least, not in biology alone—but in culture. Indeed, this tradition of thought, which Du Bois himself soon took up vigorously, argued not only that culture was the central issue but also that the races that mattered for social life were not, in fact, biological at all.


In the United States, for example, the belief that anyone with one black grandparent or, in some states, even one black great-grandparent was also black meant that a person could be socially black but have skin that was white, hair that was straight, and eyes that were blue. As Walter White, the midcentury leader of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, whose name was one of his many ironic inheritances, wrote in his autobiography, “I am a Negro. My skin is white, my eyes are blue, my hair is blond. The traits of my race are nowhere visible upon me.”


Strict adherence to thinking of race as biological yielded anomalies in the colonial context as well. Treating all Africans in Nigeria as “Negroes,” say, would combine together people with very different biological traits. If there were interesting traits of national character, they belonged not to races but to ethnic groups. And the people of one ethnic group—Arabs from Morocco to Oman, Jews in the Diaspora—could come in a wide range of colors and hair types.


In the second phase of discussion, therefore, both of the distinctive claims of the first phase came under attack. Natural scientists denied that the races observed in social life were natural biological groupings, and social scientists proposed that the human units of moral and political significance were those based on shared culture rather than shared biology. It helped that Darwin’s point had been strengthened by the development of Mendelian population genetics, which showed that the differences found between the geographic populations of the human species were statistical differences in gene frequencies rather than differences in some putative racial essence.


In the aftermath of the Holocaust, moreover, it seemed particularly important to reject the central ideas of Nazi racial “science,” and so, in 1950, in the first of a series of statements on race, UNESCO (whose founding director was the leading biologist Sir Julian Huxley) declared that


national, religious, geographic, linguistic and cultural groups do 
not necessarily coincide with racial groups: and the cultural traits of such groups have no demonstrated genetic connection with racial traits. . . . The scientific material available to us at present does not justify the conclusion that inherited genetic differences are a major factor in producing the differences between the cultures and cultural achievements of different peoples or groups.


Race was still taken seriously, but it was regarded as an outgrowth of sociocultural groups that had been created by historical processes in which the biological differences between human beings mattered only when human beings decided that they did. Biological traits such as skin color, facial shape, and hair color and texture could define racial boundaries if people chose to use them for that purpose. But there was no scientific reason for doing so. As the UNESCO statement said in its final paragraph, “Racial prejudice and discrimination in the world today arise from historical and social phenomena and falsely claim the sanction of science.”


CONSTRUCTION WORK

In the 1960s, a third stage of discussion began, with the rise of “genetic geography.” Natural scientists such as the geneticist Luigi Luca Cavalli-Sforza argued that the concept of race had no place in human biology, and social scientists increasingly considered the social groups previously called “races” to be social constructions. Since the word “race” risked misleading people on this point, they began to speak more often of “ethnic” or “ethnoracial” groups, in order to stress the point that they were not aiming to use a biological system of classification.


In recent years, some philosophers and biologists have sought to reintroduce the concept of race as biological using the techniques of cladistics, a method of classification that combines genetics with broader genealogical criteria in order to identify groups of people with shared biological heritages. But this work does not undermine the basic claim that the boundaries of the social groups called “races” have been drawn based on social, rather than biological, criteria; regardless, biology does not generate its own political or moral significance. Socially constructed groups can differ statistically in biological characteristics from one another (as rural whites in the United States differ in some health measures from urban whites), but that is not a reason to suppose that these differences are caused by different group biologies. And even if statistical differences between groups exist, that does not necessarily provide a rationale for treating individuals within those groups differently. So, as Du Bois was one of the first to argue, when questions arise about the salience of race in political life, it is usually not a good idea to bring biology into the discussion.


It was plausible to think that racial inequality would be easier to eliminate once it was recognized to be a product of sociology and politics rather than biology. But it turns out that all sorts of status differences between ethnoracial groups can persist long after governments stop trying to impose them. Recognizing that institutions and social processes are at work rather than innate qualities of the populations in question has not made it any less difficult to solve the problems.


IMAGINED COMMUNITIES

One might have hoped to see signs that racial thinking and racial hostility were vanishing—hoped, that is, that the color line would not continue to be a major problem in the twenty-first century, as it was in the twentieth. But a belief in essential differences between “us” and “them” persists widely, and many continue to think of such differences as natural and inherited. And of course, differences between groups defined by common descent can be the basis of social identity, whether or not they are believed to be based in biology. As a result, ethnoracial categories continue to be politically significant, and racial identities still shape many people’s political affiliations. 


Once groups have been mobilized along ethnoracial lines, inequalities between them, whatever their causes, provide bases for further mobilization. Many people now know that we are all, in fact, one species, and think that biological differences along racial lines are either illusory or meaningless. But that has not made such perceived differences irrelevant. 


Around the world, people have sought and won affirmative action for their ethnoracial groups. In the United States, in part because of affirmative action, public opinion polls consistently show wide divergences on many questions along racial lines. On American university campuses, where the claim that “race is a social construct” echoes like a mantra, black, white, and Asian identities continue to shape social experience. And many people around the world simply find the concept of socially constructed races hard to accept, because it seems so alien to their psychological instincts and life experiences.


Race also continues to play a central role in international politics, in part because the politics of racial solidarity that Du Bois helped inaugurate, in co-founding the tradition of pan­Africanism, has been so successful. African Americans are particularly interested in U.S. foreign policy in Africa, and Africans take note of racial unrest in the United States: as far away as Port Harcourt, Nigeria, people protested against the killing of Michael Brown, the unarmed black teenager shot to death by a police officer last year in Missouri. Meanwhile, many black Americans have special access to Ghanaian passports, Rastafarianism in the Caribbean celebrates Africa as the home of black people, and heritage tourism from North and South America and the Caribbean to West Africa has boomed. 


Pan-Africanism is not the only movement in which a group defined by a common ancestry displays transnational solidarity. Jews around the world show an interest in Israeli politics. People in China follow the fate of the Chinese diaspora, the world’s largest. Japanese follow goings-on in São Paulo, Brazil, which is home to more than 600,000 people of Japanese descent—as well as to a million people of Arab descent, who themselves follow events in the Middle East. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has put his supposed concern for ethnic Russians in neighboring countries at the center of his foreign policy.


Identities rooted in the reality or the fantasy of shared ancestry, in short, remain central in politics, both within and between nations. In this new century, as in the last, the color line and its cousins are still going strong. 


WOULDN'T IT BE NICE?


The pan-Africanism that Du Bois helped invent created, as it was meant to, a new kind of transnational solidarity. That solidarity was put to good use in the process of decolonization, and it was one of the forces that helped bring an end to Jim Crow in the United States and apartheid in South Africa. So racial solidarity has been used not just for pernicious purposes but for righteous ones as well. A world without race consciousness, or without ethno­racial identity more broadly, would lack such positive mobilizations, as well as the negative ones. It was in this spirit, I think, that Du Bois wrote, back in 1897, that it was “the duty of the Americans of Negro descent, as a body, to maintain their race identity until . . . the ideal of human brotherhood has become a practical possibility.” 


But at this point, the price of trying to move beyond ethnoracial identities is worth paying, not only for moral reasons but also for the sake of intellectual hygiene. It would allow us to live and work together more harmoniously and productively, in offices, neighborhoods, towns, states, and nations. Why, after all, should we tie our fates to groups whose existence seems always to involve misunderstandings about the facts of human difference? Why rely on imaginary natural commonalities rather than build cohesion through intentional communities? Wouldn’t it be better to organize our solidarities around citizenship and the shared commitments that bind political society?


Still, given the psychological difficulty of avoiding essentialism and the evident continuing power of ethnoracial identities, it would take a massive and focused effort of education, in schools and in public culture, to move into a postracial world. The dream of a world beyond race, unfortunately, is likely to be long deferred.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

A proposal to focus on Syria, not Iraq, in the war on ISIS, from the Council on Foreign Relations


A news report three days ago asserted that the Baghdad government, after Tikrit, will go South, against ISIS in Anbaar, rather than North, to relieve Kurds in and around Mosul.

The article below argues that the focus should shift to Syria instead of more concentration on Iraq.

Notes on rebel groups mentioned in the article appear after the jump.
[Emphasis and links added]

Foreign Affairs 

March 29, 2015
SNAPSHOT

Iraq Isn't the Right Front

A Syria-First Strategy to Fight ISIS

Hassan Hassan
 Smoke rises after a shell fell on a building that was held by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, March 28, 2015. (Rami Zayat / Reuters)
HASSAN HASSAN is a Middle East analyst and co-author of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror. 
The battle to retake Tikrit from the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has been a serious test of the United States’ current strategy in Iraq. Despite more than 2,320 strikes (costing $1.83 billion) since the summer, ISIS still holds uncontested control of the Sunni heartlands, including in Anbar, Deir Ezzor, Mosul, and Raqqa. If anything, the air strikes have mostly helped Kurdish and Shiite militias push ISIS back from their own territories and deeper into the Sunni ones.

The battle for Tikrit, though, could be different. The defeat of ISIS in Saddam Hussein’s hometown seems likely—but only after the complete destruction of the city. The battle stalled for more than three weeks despite initial expectations that it would be over within days or even hours. ISIS has reportedly been holed up in 1.5 square mile area inside Tikrit, with the Iraqi government announcing last week the final phase of the battle. If ISIS does lose, it would mark the group’s first retreat from the Sunni heartland since it took over large swaths of Iraq and Syria in June last year, undermining the group’s reputation for invincibility. But the potential gains should not distract from important dynamics reshaping the fight to ISIS’ advantage.

In Iraq, the battle against ISIS is increasingly perceived as a sectarian fight led by the Iranian-backed militias that dominate the country’s political and military landscape. As these militias start pushing against ISIS at the borders of Sunni-dominated areas, unease will only grow. The U.S. strategy stipulated that Sunni tribal fighters would be leading the effort to dislodge ISIS in Sunni areas, but the Iraqi government, along with the powerful militias that form the core of the Iranian-backed Hashd al-Shaabi, announced the start of the battle of Tikrit without consulting the U.S.-led international coalition.

In other words, although ISIS’ losses in Tikrit and other Sunni areas would seem like good things, the United States should tread carefully. The air campaign against ISIS has reached a point of saturation; more strikes won’t aid the U.S. battle against ISIS and will only further destabilize the sectarian balance in the country. Kurds and Shia have benefited immensely from the strikes. They’ve been able to guard territory, infrastructure, and power, to the detriment of the overall war against ISIS.

Given this reality, a better battlefield on which to fight ISIS is further north: Syria.

ISIS is far less entrenched in Syria than it is in Iraq. Syrian communities living under ISIS, although glad for the relative stability that ISIS has brought, view the group with profound suspicion. They see ISIS as an impermanent force that might be better at governance than previous groups but that will eventually be dislodged. And they have steered clear from joining it in large numbers; many express a deep revulsion at the group that killed hundreds of tribesmen belonging to prominent tribes in eastern Syria, including the Sha’itat in Deir Ezzor.

Even so, ISIS has worked hard to entrench itself in northern and eastern Syria. Any anti-ISIS activist operating in these areas is marked for death, and the group has beaten down most potential rivals. Many of those who would have fought against ISIS have left for Turkey or are doing battle against Assad in rebel-held areas elsewhere in the country. The pool of warriors that could conceivably fight ISIS is thus dwindling in number and resolve. But it is still possible to rally enough fighters around retaking territory from ISIS.

There are some promising signs: earlier this month, one of the most powerful rebel factions, Jaish al-Islam, announced the formation of Ali bin Abi Taleb brigade to fight ISIS in the northeast. Such announcements are not mere rhetoric. Last spring, rebel forces in the north successfully pushed ISIS out of the eastern cities of Idlib and Aleppo. In December, Jaish al-Islam chased ISIS from Damascus into the mountainous Qalamoun region. Similar groups have tried to take on ISIS in the northeast before; the Syrian Revolutionary Front (SRF), for example, pledged to send “convoys after convoys” to retake Raqqa and Deir Ezzor before Western air strikes on Iraq began over the summer. Because of a lack of international support, though, the group started to disintegrate and then was fully dismantled by the al Qaeda­–affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra earlier this year.

This time, with international backing, such fighters could be effective. But they have to be trained, funded, and equipped to fight the Assad regime as much as to fight ISIS. Perception matters in the fight against the terrorist group. A thousand fighters who have attacked regime targets would be far more effective against ISIS than many thousands who are seen by their communities as mercenaries of foreign governments. Groups such as Liwa al-Tawhid and Jaish al-Islam, for example, were able to successfully push ISIS from their areas (and hold those areas) because they had made remarkable gains against the regime, and local communities were more willing to back them. Branches of Ahfad al-Rasoul and SRF, which were perceived to be serving foreign interests focusing on extremists, had far more trouble.

And, for the fighters themselves, feeling that they are part of the overall revolutionary cause in their country is necessary for morale. Indeed, according to U.S. sources familiar with the existing CIA training program for Syrian rebels, many of those who were trained since December 2012 as counterweights to extremists—between 1,500 and 2,000 fighters—have abandoned the war altogether because they saw the program as aimless. One prominent FSA commander from Idlib said that local communities and even other rebel groups view any fight focusing on extremist forces as driven by foreign countries “unless you’re fighting on two fronts at the same time.”

And that leads to two points. First, partnership with the Assad regime to fight against ISIS will not be effective outside the areas that the regime controls, because Assad does not have the resources, the legitimacy, or the popular support needed there. Second, the West should provide weapons, funding, and training to enable the moderate rebels to make some gains against the regime, short of toppling it. And it should give them military and political backing to build a credible and effective brand. Realistically, it is not likely that the rebels would be able to topple the regime, and allowing them to try in earnest is probably irresponsible at this juncture. A good compromise would be to enable moderates and moderate Islamist rebels to take some territory from the regime, which will help them gain credibility within their communities and, in turn, help them justify turning against extremists.

The strategy must enable the rebels to feel secure in their own areas, especially in Aleppo, and prevent the regime from seizing the opportunity to attack them from behind if they push against ISIS. After Aleppo, winning the cities of al-Bab and Minbij (the first is located near Turkey and the other between Aleppo and Raqqa) would be a good step. ISIS’ loss of these territories would put massive pressure on it in Deir Ezzor, Hasaka, and Raqqa, especially if a joint Kurdish-Arab force pushes on ISIS from Qamashli. The strategy would also jibe well with Washington’s stated policy of trying to pressure Assad to accept a negotiated settlement.

In all of these plans, consistency is key. American support for the rebels should be steady and should not be limited to weapons. It should involve managing differences among backers of the Syrian opposition to ensure that the forces work closely with each other, even if they are not directly supported by the United States. Training and sufficient ammunition and weapons, including TOW missiles, which have played a remarkable role in recent rebel gains, should not be stopped on whims. Rebels blamed the recent disintegration of the SRF [Syria Revolutionaries Fronton the sudden disruption of support to the rebels in northern Syria, which enabled Jabhat al-Nusra to dominate the region.

Air cover and close coordination will be vital as rebel groups gain more territory and subsequently more credibility. Rebel victories will deprive ISIS of two essential propaganda tools it often uses against the Assad forces as well as Shia and Kurdish militias in Syria and Iraq: sectarian and political grievances, since the Syrian rebels are Sunni and largely conservative. That is why fighting ISIS in Syria will be far more effective than the current battles in Iraq. The shift to fighting ISIS in Syria will avoid the complication of sectarian tensions. Even so, the battles in Iraq must continue as ISIS disintegrates, and the two fronts must ultimately be coordinated to strike against the group wherever it shows weakness. The current “Iraq-first” strategy ignores ISIS’ weaknesses in Syria and allows it to entrench itself there while the battles in Iraq play into its hands.

The current U.S. strategy is designed to help the war against ISIS in Iraq. But it will likely backfire as the war there takes on an increasingly sectarian tinge. Even the plan to train Syrian rebels to fight ISIS, according to one source in Washington, is meant to help guard the borders between Syria and Iraq rather than to aid in a strategy to dislodge ISIS in Syria. Fighting ISIS in Syria itself would be a better bet.
News organizations report that Iran is and is not boycotting US and French air strikes in Tikrit, The article today, from the Washington Post, is the most reliable.


The Washington Post

Friday, March 27 2015

WorldViews

Image: Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani

Call to arms a reminder of the power of Iraq’s Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani

Washington Post

By Abigail Hauslohner June 13, 2014


It has been a while since Americans paid much attention to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s top Shiite cleric.

But a call to arms issued at Friday prayers in Baghdad served as a reminder of the power that Sistani yields in a country that is once again fracturing along sectarian lines.

With Sunni militants gaining territory rapidly, a representative of Sistani told followers that the defense of the country against those “terrorists” was a “sacred goal,” and that anyone who died fighting to that end “will be a martyr.’’

Sistani emerged from relative passivity after Saddam Hussein’s ouster by U.S. forces in 2003 to become a vocal religious and political guide for Iraq’s suddenly empowered Shiite masses.

His words Friday marked a radical departure for a man who has played a powerful hand in shaping Iraqi politics, but has typically urged Iraqi Shiites to resist provocation to sectarian bloodshed.

And as the most powerful religious authority in Iraq, Sistani’s words were likely to find support among the country’s Shiites and political leaders, who are desperate to hold on to power and have a fleet of well-trained Shiite militias ready to act.

Sistani was born nearly a century ago into a family of religious scholars in Iran, and spent his youth there before taking up a humble residence in Iraq's holy city of Najaf.

He survived Saddam Hussein’s brutal crackdown on Shiite opposition and members of the Shiite clerical community by staying silent.

Under Maliki’s government, Sistani’s power as a religious leader expanded. Shiites often solicit religious advice or decisions from Sistani on topics that have ranged from from marriage and war to computer games and sports.

Now 83, Sistani  has spoken repeatedly in recent years of retirement. It’s unclear why he has never followed through.

Experts say Sistani, who still speaks with a Persian accent, maintains close ties to Iran’s powerful clerics — and controls the purse strings of a vast charitable Shiite empire.

Andrew Tabler, an expert on Arab politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Sistani’s call to arms most likely reflected some collaboration with Tehran.


Abigail Hauslohner covers transportation and development for The Washington Post. Previously, she served as the Post’s Cairo bureau chief.

Lightly-armed Houthi concuer Yemen

The Houthi, lightly armed and brave and brutal, have routed the national military, well-armed by the United States and supported by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf Dictatorships and for years the might of the US  drones.

Ya gotta hand it to them.  Brave determined tribesmen and their brave determined wies with only isolated Iran to support them and its support embargoed by the US navy




Insurgency in Yemen detailed Map    Controlled by Hadi loyalists    Controlled by Al-Qaeda    Controlled by Houthis    Deserted

For a clear summary of the Houti Rebellion, see the Wikipedia article.  You can see from the map that the Houthi control most of the population of Yemen.


The New York Times
MIDDLE EAST
Houthi Rebels Release Yemeni Officials From House Arrest
By KAREEM FAHIMMARCH 16, 2015
CAIRO — Houthi rebels released Yemen’s former prime minister and members of his cabinet after nearly two months of house detention on Monday, in a sign of some progress toward easing the country’s chaotic political crisis.

In a note he posted on his Facebook page on Monday, former Prime Minister Khaled Bahah called his release a “good-will gesture,” and praised the Houthi leadership as well as the United Nations envoy to Yemen for arranging it. The release means that he and the other ministers have “absolute freedom to travel inside and outside the country,” he said.

Mr. Bahah also said he hoped his release could help rescue the country from a deepening crisis that began in September, when the Houthis, a Zaydi Shiite rebel group from northern Yemen, took control of the capital, Sana. The rebels were demanding political reforms from the government of President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

In January, the rebels expanded their power grab by seizing the presidential palace and placing Mr. Hadi, Mr. Bahah and the rest of the government under house arrest.

Last month, Mr. Hadi fled Houthi custody and traveled to the southern port city of Aden, where he declared that he was still Yemen’s rightful president. Seeking to bolster that claim, several Persian Gulf nations announced that they were moving their embassies to Aden.

The United States, which closed its embassy in Sana in February after the arrest of Mr. Hadi, has not announced any plans to move its diplomatic facilities to Aden.

Even before the crisis began, Yemen was the region’s most impoverished country, suffering from a vacuum of central authority that made it an attractive haven for a powerful affiliate of Al Qaeda. Now, with Yemen split between competing power centers in the north and south, concerns have also grown that the dispute could devolve into a civil war.

The crisis has also transformed Yemen into a stage for the region’s enmities. The Houthis, facing growing international isolation in the capital they control, have turned to their longtime Iranian allies for support, while Saudi Arabia, Iran’s rival, has rallied the monarchies of the Persian Gulf behind Mr. Hadi.

In his message on Monday, Mr. Bahah, who had resigned his post after his arrest, said he and the government would not resume their duties and warned of “dire consequences” if the political process was abandoned.

He said he was leaving the capital to be with his family, and called his long ordeal “a unique experience in my career.”

Tuesday, March 17, 2015


The Iranian missiles  in Iraq are not precision guided and the US is worried because civilian deaths might cause sectarian strife.  

The bombs the US dropped on Baghdad in its Shock and Awe Operation were not precision guided,  and they didn’t cause sectarian strife.  Did they?


The US now has a choice:  give Iraq precision-guided missiles or do all the heavy lifting itself.  It is unseemly for the US to stand on the sideline and carp.


The New York Times
MIDDLE EAST 
Iran Sent Arms to Iraq to Fight ISIS, U.S. Says
By ERIC SCHMITTMARCH 16, 2015
WASHINGTON — Iran has deployed advanced rockets and missiles to Iraq to help fight the Islamic State in Tikrit, a significant escalation of firepower and another sign of Iran’s growing influence in Iraq.
United States intelligence agencies detected the deployments in the past few weeks as Iraq was marshaling a force of 30,000 troops — two-thirds of them Shiite militias largely trained and equipped by Iran, according to three American officials. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence reports on Iran.
Iran has not yet launched any of the weapons, but American officials fear the rockets and missiles could further inflame sectarian tensions and cause civilian casualties because they are not precision guided. Their deployment is another dilemma for the Obama administration as it trains and equips the Iraqi military and security services to help defeat the Islamic State, but unlike Iran is unwilling to commit fighters and advisers who join Iraqi forces in the field.

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Official grab for power extends beyond the grave

China forbids Dalai Lama from refusing to reincarnate.
The Han - the world's largest ethnic group and the present rulers of China- have become e il Monty Python. 
I don’t think the Dalai Lama would mind if you saw this through the prism of Monty Python,” Robert Barnett, director of the modern Tibetan studies program at Columbia University, said in a telephone interview. “But he is reminding the Chinese that, from his perspective and the perspective of probably nearly all Tibetans, the Chinese don’t really have a credible role in deciding these things.”
Imagine sitting in on a meeting of the Politburo when it is discussing alternatives means  of  compelling compliance with it's dictates.  

The meeting oc of the Politburo  is both as hilarious and as chilling as a meeting of the Republican Senate Foreign Relations Committee trying to figure out how to accept Iran's help in fighting the Islamist State:  can't be done, by Republicans.   

The atheist government of China trying to figure out how to frame an edict directed to the corps of the Dali Lama, to force the corps to reincarnate is -- well, can't be done either.

The Dali Lama, by suggesting that he will not reincarnate, is playing a last, best trick on the Han, who have gone mad with a desire to compel all within the borders of China to adopt the mores that work so well for the Han but that fit with great discomfort with Tibetans, Uighurs, Taiwanese, and many other ethnic groups who find themselves living within the artificial borders of "China."

The political elites of all countries except for the Republic of Tuva play out a Theater of thee Absurd and their power for harm is awful (original mealing).  

Even as this blog post is published, Tibetans are immolating themselves in protest to the Han rule.  One hundred thirty-seven Tibetans have self-immolated since 2009.  There names are here.


Self-immolation hurts.  You have to seriously object to governmental idiocy, and feel helpless to stop its insensible harm to do it.




The Dali Lama's suggestion that he might not reincarnate isn't just a problem for China.  There are five Autonomous Republics in the Russian Federation that have a majority of folks who are Tibetan Buddhist, and who refer the Dali Lama.  A failure by him to reincarnate would cause grater disturbances in those republics and dissension between China and Russia.

Priests praying and beating a drum at a new Buddhist temple in a suburb of Ulan Ude, capital of Buyatia Republic, Russia. Photo: Japhet Weeks

The Times story is after the jump.