Jihadist threat to Central Asia after the proposed NTO withdrawal from Afghanistan

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published a scholarly article  about likely jihadist activity in Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—after NATO completes its withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan this year.

The article addresses this fateful question: Jihadism in Central Asia: A Credible Threat After the Western Withdrawal From Afghanistan? ..The author's introductory paragraphs are here:

Central Asian governments view with alarm and pessimism the withdrawal by the end of 2014 of most of the Western troops that have been present in Afghanistan since a NATO-led security mission began in 2001. 

Kabul’s neighbors expect the already-unstable situation in Afghanistan to deteriorate and threaten their own security and stability. They fear that a radical Islamist regime in Afghanistan will emerge from a Taliban military victory—a scenario that many Central Asian leaders and analysts believe is inevitable and will spill over across Afghanistan’s northern border.

The article's conclusion is here:

CONCLUSION

The gradual withdrawal of NATO-led forces from Afghanistan is currently the most widely debated political event in Central Asia. Governments, diplomats, and security analysts are constantly speculating about the consequences of the drawdown for Central Asian societies. It is simplistic to assert that the departure of Western troops will have no negative impact. Until Afghanistan is truly stabilized under a political actor who is strong and willing enough to target and eliminate Central Asian jihadism and its allies, Kabul’s problems will have an effect on the country’s northern neighbors.

However, the idea that jihadist forces wishing to target the Central Asian regimes will sweep into the Fergana Valley on January 1, 2015, and turn it into a new tribal area or a new Afghanistan is sheer fantasy. The Taliban have been able to count on ethnic and tribal structures as well as on Pashtun nationalism, which made it possible for the movement to have a lasting impact.

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Jihad Union are indeed dangerous groups. But so far, they have not had the same impact on Central Asian nations as the Taliban. The IMU and the IJU are well trained and closely connected to transnational jihadism and al-Qaeda, and they have the professionalism required to strike in their post-Soviet homelands. But a massive spillover from Afghanistan and Pakistan that would destabilize the region’s leaders is a pipe dream.

In fact, the impact of these groups will be as significant as the Central Asian regimes allow it to be. The jihadists that threaten them are doomed to remain small groups, as Central Asian societies are clearly unwilling to follow the militants’ extremist political path.

The governments of the region have a great opportunity after 2014. The regimes must institute the necessary police and border-control operations to avoid incursions. At the same time, they must get serious about the other problems emanating from Afghanistan, including drug trafficking, and work within the framework of international bodies such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to stabilize their southern neighbor. And they must resist the temptation to disproportionately assert the jihadist danger abroad. Above all, they must focus on developing domestic policies that take full account of the social and economic issues that could provide the jihadists with new recruits in the future.

Central Asian leaders need to learn from their own past mistakes, and from those of Arab authoritarian regimes, and adopt a reformist mind-set in the way they deal with political and religious affairs. It will probably take a generational change for this lesson to be truly understood. Repression of opposition and the promotion of local Islam have worked in the short term, but such tools might not be enough in the longer term.

Unfortunately, as the issue of Afghanistan is so close to home, Central Asian leaders might not have the luxury of time to change their ways. After 2014, the region’s governments will need to decide whether to stay the course or to adopt a more reformist path. The latter choice could help safeguard Central Asia’s stability while Afghanistan gradually rebuilds itself.

Jihadist groups operating in Central Asia pose a real threat, but they are not the only or even the primary danger facing the region’s regimes.

The states of Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—are closely watching the political situation in Afghanistan, a neighbor with whom three of them share a border. This situation concerns them very deeply.

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Blog author's comments:

Here is a map of  South and Central Asia:

Here is a map of present and potential members of the Turkic Council:

Aquamarine are the present members; blue are potential members.

Here is a map of the Fergana Valley, referred to in the article:

The full article is reprinted after the jump.

Central Asia is more important to you than you might think.

The countries named are all Turkic-speaking.  Four of them have joined Azerbaijan and Turkey in the Turkic Council, an intergovernmental agency dedicated to further deepening comprehensive cooperation among Turkic Speaking States, as well as making joint contributions to peace and stability in the region and in the world. Member States have confirmed their commitment to democratic values, human rights, the rule of law, and principles of good governance.

The Union will in time become something like the European Union.  Trade barriers between member states have been eliminated, and they are now engaged in joint military exercises.

Turkey has the strongest military in the Middle East.

Much of Central Asia is awash in petrochemicals, and is vigorously courted by the US, China, and Russia. NATO is currently scheduled to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of this year; think of that with NATO's new agreement to become involved in Syria and Iraq, because of Islamist activity there.  The West is unlikely to cede Central Asia to Russia and China without a contest of wills.

Please take a look at the article; see what you think.

War with Iran:A Demand for Peace

Some Old White Men are looking to stir up strife with Iran, among them . . .

Paul Wolfowitz

Prominent Neocon, responsible along with others for the Iraq War;

Disgraced former head of the International Monetary Fund

Benjamin Netanyahu

Israeli prime minister and spokesperson

for a minority of Jews in Israel

Ehud Barak

Israeli defense minister, who, when told told

hat most of Israel's military and intelligence services

 oppose a first strike on Iran, said, 

"The services look up to me and the prime minister; 

We look up only 

to the Sky."

Jack Rosen

President of the American Jewish Congress, 

who speaks for  the half of American Jews

 who like War with Iran

Speaking for American Jews who

promote a just and lasting Israel is 

Jeremy Ben -Ami

President of J Street

 (to which some of us also belong.  

And so should you.)

Republican presidential candidates (Ron Paul excepted) also wish us to go to War with Iran. . .

Mitt Romney

"Look like the time; bear welcome in your eye, 

Your hand, your tongue: look like the innocent flower, 

   But be the serpent under't."

MacBeth, Act 1 Scene  5

 Newton Leroy Gingrich

fI do not love thee, Dr Fell,

The reason why I cannot tell;

But this I know, and know full well,

I do not love thee, Dr Fell.

 Rik Santorum

Boy Scout Law

A Scout is:

• Trustworthy,

• Loyal,

• Helpful,

• Friendly,

• Courteous,

• Kind,

• Homophobic

• Obedient,

• Cheerful,

• Thrifty,

• Brave,

• Clean,

•Intolerant of others,

• and Reverent.

These gentlemen all favor a preemptive strike against Iran, which might well make Iraq look like the "walk in the park" it was advertised to be..

  Look what the Iraq war got us.

A quick snapshot of the country these Old White Men would start a War with:

Iran has a near-perfect literacy rate and nearly all speak Persian; and about  60% of Iran's peoples speak Persian - or "Farsi" as it is known in the Persian language - as their native 

or a language in the Persian language family.  

The folks just to the East of Iran are the Tajiks in Afghanistan and, of course, in Tajikistan.  They can understand Persians in Iran as well as South Carolinians can understand Dubliners.

The Tajiks in Afghanistan make up the Northern Alliance, mortal enemies of the Taliban, folks we should be allied with instead of Pashtuns if we hope to get out of Afghanistan in one piece.  For information on the Tajik Afghan province right next to Iran's East, see here. 

Herat, Afghanistan, the only successful Afghan province, and

run by Tajiks

About 40% of the population of Iran are native Turkic speakers.

Turkic speaking countries, and the Trukic Council

Immediately to the north of Iran is Azerbaijan, a member of the Turkic Council.  Azeris can understand Turkish the way Texans can understand Scots.

Some scenes fo Azerbaijan:

 Celebrating an Azeri football victory

Beach football has reached Azerbaijan . . . before Hawaii!

Wrestling is the Azeri national sport, as it is in Iran.

Farid Mansurov, Vice-chair of the Azeri National Wrestling Conference

Interesting, but not as interesting as the oil wresting in neighboring Turkey:

Horses are important to Azeris, as they are 

to all Turkic speaking people.  And Texans.

Azerbaijan has just been made a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.  It is rich in oil and has a democratic, moderate, Shiite government.  It is friendly with the United States, and especially friendly with our oil companies.

In an recent interview, Azerbaijan Presidential Administration Social and Political Department Chief Ali Hasanov spoke of the stable relationship Azerbaijan has with Iran, and noted

"Iran is home to tens of millions of our countrymen. We do not want problems with this country, and we try to keep good relations with Iran, we seek not to interfere in the internal affairs of each other, to prevent the use of our territories against other states, and also against each other," he noted.

Azerbaijan has been at war with its Christian neighbor, Armenia, for years, over control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an area between the two counties.

Although Armenia is a Christian country and Azerbaijan is Shia, Shia Iran has sided with Armenia, and still, relations between Azerbaijan ad Iran remain normal.

What do the Azeris know that wee could learn?

In any event, Azeris would not be pleased if we were to bomb Tabriz, the capital of the Iranian province of  East-Azerbaijan, home to many Azeris, a major industrial area of Iran, and the province that the Iraqis are doing business with.  

 Tabriz footballer

 Tabriz carpet maker, who would make a carpet for you,

if you asked nicely

Pro-democracy demonstrators in  Tabriz.  Iran, for all its beauty and favorable neighbors, is a theocratic dictatorship which some day soon will see a change.

 Tabriz football team.  I would not like us to 

kill

the football team or the pro-democracy demonstrators.

Let 'em work it out for themeless.  Help where we can.

 Tabriz shop

 Tabriz metal worker

IS SHORT - -

We'd make the Iraqis and the Azerbaijani and the Tajiks mad at us, and we'd cause unforeseeable complications with the Kurds, the Balochi, and the Pakistanis (described in a later post) if we bombed Iran.  

Israeli leaders now want to bomb Iran, and think the consequences would be a mere 100 dead: they do not think they would be among he dead;  they are dead wrong, according to their own intelligence estimates. 

Republican presidential candidates and other Old White Men want to bomb Iran and don't' know or won't say what the consequences, in lives and treasure, would be or how we are to pay for the adventure.

We'd  make the Saudis happy, and I think they are worse, and more our enemy, than Iran.

DON'T BOMB IRAN.  

LIVE WITH ONE MORE COUNTRY WITH THE BOMB if need be.  It won't be worse than North Korea's having the Bomb, and we've heard nary a peep out of them except a piteous plea for food.

Written by an Old White Man, but not one of  Them.

Beards in Beautiful Tajikistan

The Northern Alliance, which by report makes up most of Afghanistan’s military and which is the strongest fighting force in the country, is made up mainly of Tajiks. The Tajiks in Afghanistan are close, and closely related, to Tajiks in Tajikistan, just across the porous northern border.

Tajiks on both sides of the border hate the Taliban, who tried to take over Tajikistan after the War with the Soviets had been won. The two civil wars ruined a beautiful and — for Muslims – moderate country. To be fair -- as all good Liberals must be -- Talibs also hate moderation. As do some Christians here at home. And some atheists I could name.

However, the Taliban is resurgent in Tajikistan. The government, to oppose them, is pursuing men with beards, to shave 'em.

If Tajikistan falls, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan will fall, according to Nixon's infallible Domino Theory. What! You don't know what a "Nixon" is? Ah, youth. Well, it was thought to be a person with a theory -- a proven fact, really -- that if we let South Vietnam become Communist, all of Asia would Follow Suit, as dominoes fall when stacked end on end. A law of nature really. And that's just what happened! Thailand, Laos, India, Pakistan, and all the rest are now controlled by commie pinko rats, just as Nixon predicted! Whataguy.

Ich bin ein Tajik! As well as a Palestinian.

Or would be but for my beard.

Palestinians love beards; Tajiks don't trust 'em: what’s a Liberal to do?

__________________

Here are some pics of Tajikistan and Tajiks, to support my contention that it is a beautiful country. But first, a map:

What an oddly-shaped country! Note the odd Afghanistan spur that separates Tajikistan from Pakistan, created by the British who didn't want any prat of Tajikistan to touch British India, as it was then. The spur has a deep ravine guarded by steep mountains, and was the Uighurs' main connection with the outside world until the kindly Han ethnic group -- the largest in China; the largest in the world -- forced its closing.

Ich bin ein Uighur also, for that matter. "Come in. I contain multitudes." Krishna Fluting, John Barry (1959). Made an impression, as you can see.

Migrant Tajiks working in Russia because there isn't enough work at home.

This is as it was in my home town, before machines took over.

And football, as always, everywhere.

In 2005, Farrukh Berdiev made a spectacular save in a game against India, winning the game. His fame is assured for life.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon's eldest son, Rustam Emomali, plays on this team, which he recently formed. You can see the close family resemblance to George W. Bush, who also had a dad and a team.